The Dog That Didn’t Bark March 31, 2009
Posted by justinlall in Blog.Tags: Convention, Inference, Intermediate
3 comments
There is a nice inference available for players that play support doubles that they often fail to make. The inference is that when partner does NOT make a support double after opening a minor, he will always have 4 cards in that minor, and often 5.
Take the auction
1 (p) 1
(2
)
p
Since opener has at most 2 spades, at most 4 hearts, and at least as many clubs as diamonds his worst shape is 2434 or 2344. For those who open 1D with 4-4 in the minors, the last shape is impossible too. This means partner usually has five clubs.
This inference can help responder greatly in competitive auctions. He can compete more freely in clubs, not worrying about partner having just 3.
Today I had Axxx
xx
xxx
Axxx and heard the auction go as above. I was able to balance easily with 3
.
Sometimes the best part of a convention is the inferences you can make when it is NOT used.
How To Read Your Opponents… Hesitations? April 1, 2007
Posted by justinlall in Articles.Tags: Advanced, Inference
1 comment so far
Bridge and poker have a lot of similarities, but they diverge wildly in rules about tempo. In poker anything goes, you can hesitate whenever you like and try to fool your opposition, but in bridge you can never purposely mislead your opponents by hesitating. However, you can take inference from the opponent’s hesitations (but never from partner’s). This gives you a huge advantage if you know how to filter through this information and figure out what it means.
Let’s start with an easy one. The opponents bid 1-1
-2
(hesitation) uncontested. The opponents are intermediates. What does the opening bidder have?
He will almost always have a 3 card raise. The other possibility is something like a 4441 14 count that was thinking of jumping to 3. However, most intermediates would not think about jumping with the latter hand, and if they did think about it they would probably do it. With a hand like 3451 it would take them some time to raise since it might just be a 4-3 fit. If you are thinking of balancing, it’s less likely to be right with the information you now have. It also is more likely to be right to lead a trump if the opponents get to 4.
How about this one, you open 1 and your LHO thinks for a while and passes at favorable vulnerability. What does LHO probably have?
It is very likely he has at least an opening bid with diamond length. If you end up declaring this information could be very useful. I once had a funny hand where after that start to the auction my partner responded 1, and with 6 mediocre diamonds I chose to rebid 1N. Sure enough LHO had 5 diamonds and 1N was much better than the normal 2
.
The thing you have to do to figure out what type of hands your opponents have for their hesitations is ask yourself what kind of hands will have a problem. Maybe in the latter case your LHO was thinking of overcalling for instance, but at favorable vulnerability if he wanted to overcall he probably would have. All the hand types where he will have a problem are hands with long diamonds and a good hand.
The best, and most confusing, clues you will find from the tempo come from the play. It is important to remember in the play that very often the opponents will try to deceive you with their tempo even though they are not allowed to. That is fine though, we can still exploit their tendencies.
Suppose you have Qxxxx in your hand and AJT9x in dummy. You lead the queen, LHO fumbles and gives it a 2 second hesitation and plays low. You should 100 % go up with the ace. If LHO had Kx he would never be considering playing the king looking at all the high ones in dummy. He would play low smoothly with that. With xx he may be idiotic enough to think that hesitating and playing low will make us think he has the king. Don’t fall for it.
Now, suppose you have xx opposite KJTx and your opponents are experienced players. You lead towards the KJTx, and LHO thinks for a noticeable amount of time and plays low. Without the ace he wouldn’t think for a long time as you could call him on it, if he wanted to deceive you when he held the Q he would think for maybe 1 or 2 seconds at most. So he has the ace. Why would an experienced player think with the ace in a situation he’s probably seen 1000 times? With just the ace he would play low quickly. In my experience, they always have the AQ in this scenario. They want you to know they have the ace so that you go up with the king. So play the jack and lead up again, that way you’ll have 2 tricks available from the suit. Be careful though, if your opponents are very inexperienced, they may just have the ace and not know what to do.
What happens if the opponents deviate from their tempo by playing very FAST? I had an interesting scenario involving that recently. I was in 7N. In the end game I had a good heart in my hand, a losing club, and a small diamond. Dummy had the AQ of diamonds and a losing club. RHO was known to have the winning club. I led my good heart and pitched a club from dummy and RHO pitched an extremely quick diamond. Now I had to guess whether I had squeezed RHO or if the finesse was on. I judged that RHO would only pitch a diamond that fast because he had seen the squeeze coming and was scared if he pitched a diamond slowly I’d realize he must have the king. As a result, he pitched too fast to compensate. If RHO simply had 2 small diamonds he would have nothing to worry about and would pitch in his normal tempo, or even hesitate to try and mislead me. So I dropped his now stiff king and made my contract.
Another situation where they’re playing fast is when they literally pull a card to play before you have called from dummy. This almost always means that they’re going to follow suit and cannot beat any finesse you could take. So if you have KQTxx opposite Ax and play the ace and another one and RHO pulls their card and is about to play it before you have even played from dummy I would recommend finessing the ten.
I cannot go over every situation where a variation from normal tempo gives you information, there are simply too many of them. Don’t ignore it though, try and logically figure out what their problem could be and take advantage of it!
Spec Doubles June 24, 2005
Posted by justinlall in Articles.Tags: Advanced, Bidding, Inference
6 comments
Bridge is a different game than it once was. Games are being bid extremely aggressively, and most experts want to be in a 24 HCP 3N contract. Four of a major requires even less. These games often make when there is a little bit of luck, but if finesses are off and suits break badly they will go down more than 1 usually. No big deal, down 3 NV is only 150. No big deal unless they are doubled anyways.
The only defense to these extremely aggressive modern experts is to double their games if they are going down multiple tricks. Often you can tell when they have stretched to reach a thin game and a key suit is breaking badly. Don’t hesitate to double them if this is the case.
There are a few important guidelines before issuing a speculative double:
- Make sure the opponents have had an invitational auction. This ensures that they were stretching and do not have full values. If they power into game, they may have extra values and redouble. Without full values it is impossible for them to redouble.
- It is preferable to make spec Xs at imps or rubber bridge. At imps if you double 3N and it makes, you are only losing 4 imps. At rubber bridge, it is only 150 points. If it is matchpoints, you are risking a bottom board which is much more costly. You also don’t need to double a game that is overbid in matchpoints; you already stand to get a good board if it goes down. The exception is if it is a normal game that everyone will bid, now the upside is much greater.
- Make sure you have quick values as opposed to slow values if you are doubling 4 of a major. Aces and kings are much better than queens and jacks. Also, having quick tricks in short suits is even better; it means they are less likely to get ruffed.
- If it would normally indicate a certain lead, make sure that lead is ok. If you want a different lead you’ll be better off just passing.
- Having short trumps is much better than having long trumps. You don’t want to give away your trump holding, and by doubling with short trumps you may induce them to misplay the hand.
- If they accept a game try slowly, they are even more likely to be overbidding. Sometimes you can figure out they are stretching a lot just based on tempo.
Now that we’ve got that out of the way, lets look at some examples.
You hold: 5
9742
AQT8
AKT3 playing imps. Your RHO starts with 1
and you hear this auction from the opponents: 1
-1
-2
-2N-3N. Here we know our diamonds lie favorably over the diamond bidder. There is no way they can use diamonds as a source of tricks. Partner must be holding spades over the spade bidder, as the opponents have not tried to get to 4
. Neither of the opponents can have 5 hearts, and only RHO could even have 4 as LHO didn’t try a 2
bid. So they have at most 4 tricks there. We have the clubs locked up. The opponents had an invitational auction where they might both be stretching. The situation is great for a speculative double; make them pay when the suits don’t break well for them.
Ready for another one?
You hold: –
AKJ
A832
T87532. The bidding start with your LHO and your side stays quiet. 1N-2
-2
-2
-3
-4
. Here you should double. Since the opponents are not playing transfer extensions or anything else, RHO has shown a hand with 4 spades and 5 hearts with invitational values. Partner probably has 5 spades, potentially 4 if LHO has 5. You are 100 % sure your 2 hearts will cash, and on a good day 3 of them will. Your ace of diamonds is also a big favorite to survive. The opponents are obviously bidding a low high card game, and you’ve got to punish them.
This last one comes from an online BBO match.
I held: JT76
AK875
972
7. I passed and LHO opened 1N 11+-14. RHO invited with 2N, and LHO thought for a few seconds before bidding 3N. This was passed around to me and I doubled! Most people I have talked to about this hand think I am nuts, so I will try to argue my case here. We know from experience when we pass this out our partner always leads a small club. OK, not always, but it sure feels that way. He does rate to lead our stiff when we have one. LHO probably has a good 12 or 13 because he thought for a few seconds before bidding game, so they have at most 25 and probably less. A double asks for partner to lead his weaker major. RHO did not bid stayman, so he does not have 4 hearts. If we do get our heart lead and LHO doesn’t have 4 of them, we are in great shape. Partner will probably get in with a minor suit entry and continue hearts. If LHO does happen to have 4 hearts, we can change plans and attack spades. If partner guesses the wrong major to lead, a spade lead is still much better for us than a club. On the actual deal partner did lead a spade from 953. He got in with the ace of diamonds and found the heart shift from Q94 so we got +500. His normal lead was a club, which wouldn’t have cost if he won the diamond ace and played a heart. I’ll leave it up to you to decide if I was lucky or good.
After doubling your opponents a few times like this, they may be scared to ever bid a close game against you. That’s when you’ve got them.