Justin Lall

Playing in a BBO match today I got to this very interesting 6:

KQ84
T8
A76
AQ32

AJT7
AQ953
T
KJ9

I got the 8 lead, 3rd from even, low from odd. That means they probably have either 4 or 6 diamonds. After winning the ace, we have our first big decision. We can make the intuitive play of ruffing a diamond, or we can play a heart to the queen first. Lets compare those two lines.

Line A: Ruffing a diamond. If we are able to ruff a diamond, play two trumps ending in dummy, and then ruff another diamond we are cold with trumps splitting. We will take 1 heart, 4 clubs, 4 spades, 1 diamond, and 2 ruffs. However, what do we do if trumps are 4-1? If we ruff another diamond in our hand we will set up the 9xxx of spades for a trick. Then we can just play clubs letting them ruff, and eventually take a heart finesse. If it is stiff 9 of spades things get even more complicated, but that is unlikely so we’ll ignore it. So line A basically wins on all 3-2 trumps, and half of the 4-1 trumps. That is about 82 %.

Line B: Hooking the heart first. If the hook wins we are basically cold barring 5-1 hearts. We will play ace of hearts, heart ruff high if lefty follows, and if necessary ruff another heart. We do risk losing when RHO has Kx of hearts and 9xxx of spades. If the heart hook loses and the expected diamond comes back we can revert to line A, making on 3-2 trumps, plus some stiff 9 combinations. However, we have the upside that if LHO shows out on the second round of spades we can try the desperation play of pulling trumps, hooking the heart jack, and making if they’re 3-3 also. This is quite good, I make it in the 85 % range.

Line B seems better by a fair margin. At the table I chose Line A and something very interesting happened. After ruffing a diamond and playing the ace of spades the stiff 9 did come down. I played another spade and LHO pitched a diamond (which makes it look like he has 6 of them unless he’s very clever). Now there are again two possible lines.

Line A: Overtake, ruff a diamond, and play 3 rounds of clubs. If that lives you’re home, otherwise you need a heart hook. It is hard to calculate the odds of this since it depends on how many empty spaces they have in their hand, but if diamonds are 6-3 and spades are 4-1 then both east and west have the same amount of empty spaces. This bodes well for 3 rounds of clubs living.

Line B: Overtake and run the ten of hearts. If the jack is onside you’re home. If the heart loses to the jack and a diamond comes back then you make on 3-3 clubs or the heart king onside. If they return a more accurate club you’ll need the heart king onside to make, as well as either 3-3 hearts or 3-3 clubs. If RHO had Kx of hearts he should have covered the ten, in which case you can fall back on 33 clubs. Very complicated, but I make Line A slightly better because we think diamonds are 6-3.

I did take Line A, and RHO had a stiff club and no K, but did have the J, so this was a disaster.

Also, LHO had falsecarded their lead with KJ8xx! Well done to them!